What did the Chiefs Lose in the Wide Receiver Room
The start of an off-season WR series looking at what the Chiefs have lost in Free Agency and where the roster stands.
The Kansas City Chiefs lost Juju Smith-Schuster (New England Patriots) and Mecole Hardman (New York Jets) in free agency at the wide receiver position. At this point,t hey haven’t added any additional help to the unit and it has led to quite some debate among Chiefs’ fans.
On one hand, the Chiefs just won a Super Bowl with a middle tier WR room and the thought can be that no significant investment is needed in the WR room to do it again. The youth and development of Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney could be right around the corner. On the other hand, the Chiefs lost their top WR in Smith-Schuster and already had some games in which their WR room struggled with reliability. Mix in injury concerns and there could be a need to replace Smith-Schuster at bare minimum.
What is the correct side of the debate? Is there a correct side of the debate? Let’s take a look at some numbers to see what the Chiefs actually lost compared to what they have at the WR position.
Chiefs Wide Receivers vs Man Coverage
Man coverage - in general - has given the Chiefs more trouble from a passing perspective than zone coverage has. The issue defenses face is how difficult it is to play man coverage vs a mobile quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. When they are able to successfully corral Mahomes and for the Chiefs to throw success can be found, comparatively.
There are a few major take a ways from this chart. First, the Chiefs are losing nearly as much volume as they are retaining in terms of targets. Note; target share is targets vs man coverage from just wide receivers during the 2022 season, so players like Justin Watson make up for the missing targets.
What’s Leaving
The consistency and reliability is the first thing to notice that has left the Chiefs’ WR room. The completion % of 74% to Smith-Schuster and Hardman greatly outshines the completion % to WRs currently on the roster.
The ability to create yards after the catch is also taking a hit, specifically with the loss of Smith-Schuster. Toney average a near identical YAC/reception but the aDOT tells the story that his receptions are coming very close to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to create YAC. Smith-Schuster’s targets are coming in a short to intermediate range that is often producing less YAC opportunity - also noteworthy for Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s extremely low number.
The sneaky big thing to note is the best short to intermediate man beating options are both leaving. Whether focusing purely on the reliability or the depth of target, Hardman and Smith-Schuster were executing at a high level vs man coverage in that 5-10 yard range downfield. There is hope for Moore to eat into this role as he had the highest yards per route run but with a limited sample size and deeper aDOT, it’s still a decent sized jump.
What’s Staying
The vertical threats vs man coverage are still on the roster. MVS had the most yards and yards per target vs man coverage despite the second lowest completion percentage. That happens when you also have the high aDOT and as previously mentioned, Moore joins him on the higher end of the aDOT metric.
MVS, Moore, and Toney also combined to receive a higher target share than Smith-Schuster and Hardman. That at least showcases the offense didn’t funnel entirely through the leaving WRs in terms of facing man coverage and there is hope that can continue.
Chiefs Wide Receivers vs Zone Coverage
The Chiefs were absolutely lethal vs zone this past year. A large part of that is Mahomes’ growth, another large part is Travis Kelce being the best zone beating player in the NFL, but there’s also a chance that the WRs added to the roster last year played a role.
A quick look shows that Smith-Schuster - to no surprise - was excellent vs zone coverage last season while the other 2022 WR additions were solid. Target wise, the Chiefs are losing a ton of targets vs zone coverage in free agency but should we believe that won’t matter?
What’s Leaving
Everything. Only joking.. a little. Smith-Schuster had the highest target share, second best reception %, most yards, most yards/target, and second most yards per route run. Hardman also finished third in all of the efficiency stats as well. Not only is the majority of the WR production against zone coverage leaving but the most efficient players doing so.
Once again it’s the short to intermediate range that is going to be the most hurt. Both Smith-Schuster and Hardman found their success in that area with aDOT's in the 7 yard range. The remaining WRs were either vertical threats or receiving passes near the line of scrimmage and relying on YAC.
Not to drive home a point a third time but the reliability and consistency is a huge loss. The WR in the 2022 season was hardly consistent as is but now the most stable part of that has moved on to New England as well. Target shares will have to have a stark uptick for players who were significantly less efficient last season.
What’s Staying
Once again MVS provides stability as a vertical threat. His highest aDOT and yardage production sticks out again. It’s the one area the Chiefs have consistency in with returning WRs, the vertical presence regardless of coverage is there.
Toney and Moore provided YAC production vs zone coverage last year which is a slight difference than vs man coverage in which Smith-Schuster and Hardman excelled. It’s worth noting their extremely low aDOTs lead one to think it’s on screens, jet sweeps, and RPO type passes but the functioning skill was on display.
Conclusion
The production from last year doesn’t lead to a perfect 1:1 translation to the following year. Players will improve with more time in the offense or by simply being in the NFL longer. Both Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore have far more developmental potential left than any other WR on the roster. They can clearly make jumps going from 2022 to 2023.
That being said, it’s pretty clear the Chiefs are going losing a ton of reliability in the WR room. Regardless of talent, ceiling, or upside there is a certain level of reliability that is now off the roster. There isn’t a ton of evidence to back-up a belief that the WRs on the roster currently can provide that level of consistency in 2023.
Equally concerning is the efficiency that has left in free agency. The volume numbers may not be gaudy for Smith-Schuster and Hardman but both were efficient vs man and zone coverage compared to their teammates. Part of that falls back into the reliability aspect but they were simply more efficient WRs.
From a “WR roles” perspective it also paints a relatively clear picture. The Chiefs have their vertical threat in MVS, having potential YAC creators in Toney and Moore, but are losing their top two short to intermediate threats. They are losing the chain movers vs both man and zone coverage at the WR position. They are also losing their best zone beating WR which isn’t always a learned skill. Moore shows some potential as a man beating WR but it still wasn’t at an elite clip.
It’s hard find evidence that points towards the current Chiefs’ WR room matching or surpassing last year’s WR room performance. Even with significant development to both Moore and Toney, there is a lot of ground to cover in ways they haven’t exactly shown major flashes in. That doesn’t mean they can’t but it’s difficult to see the Chiefs not wanting to add a player(s) that help fulfill that reliable, short to intermediate WR with some man beating prowess before the season starts. That’s where we will go next with this off-season WR series, potential Free Agent additions that could fulfill these roles.
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Toney was a mid season pick-up, Everyone at KCSN was saying that Toney was all about next year and if we got anything at all this year it was a bonus. We got the BONUS! To compare and contrast Toney with his limited leash and possibilities is really neither fair or possible. I watched all of Skyys completions and he looked much quicker and much faster than Juju. We all know that Juju is a bigger body and is an experienced route runner. It is possible that we could get 80% of Jujus yards with Skyy this year. Skyy simply didnt get to have that opportunity due to Juju being a more experience player and of course plays were called to focus on his skill. Skyy needs that opportunity.
There is every possibility that Toney and Skyy will add 700 to 800 yards each for a total of 1400 to 1600 yards. (Last year their total combined was about 425 yards)
That's a net gain of over 1,000 yards which is more than a replacement for Juju.
The above does not negate our need for another strong receiver, Drafting one or otherwise is important.
The house is not on fire. But as Travis Kelce said we need More, More, More.
Does anyone have the discord link? The only one on the substack expired years ago.