Another interesting thought exercise. Thank you for doing all the legwork on this.
One quibble - towards the end, you mention cutting Sneed and getting the compensatory pick, but comp picks are not for players who are cut. The hypothetical is if the Chiefs had not placed the franchise tag on Sneed and he signed as a free agent since his contract had expired.
Reasonable people can disagree whether the compensation was worth losing the player. Sneed has been awesome for us and on a positive trajectory throughout his time with the team. But that also means his value was probably at its peak. There is depth in the defensive backfield. I don't expect Williams and Watson to be as good as Sneed, but I think they are capable players ready for a larger role. If there is one spot where players consistently overperform their draft status for KC, it is in the defensive backfield. The front office and coaching staff have earned our trust, especially back there.
Ah, thank you for that. I meant if we rescinded the tag and allowed him to reach free agency, not if we cut him, as he had not yet signed the tag. I will clarify that language.
No worries. I wasn't sure if a team could rescind the tag - that seems an especially ugly thing to do. The team forces the player to miss out on the first wave of free agency when teams have cap space to pick them up, then doesn't even have to honor it if it isn't signed. The more I learn about the tag, the more I hate it!
It doesn't happen often, but it has happened. It was discussed by fans regarding Sneed, especially after the low trade compensation came out. With our lack of major contracts given to incoming free agents, we likely would have received a comp pick for him, had we gone that route.
So we should be using the JJ chart for rounds 1-2 and the Hill chart for 3-7?
I'm surprised the JJ chart came out on top as the Hill chart was specifically formulated based on actual NFL trades post CBA that only involved draft picks. I feel like I have read comments form former NFL executives that said the JJ chart was pretty accurate except for the 1st round overvaluations.
This would be reasonable to do, yes. Though just sticking with either chart would also be fine, imo. I was surprised that the Rich Hill chart didn't win this, too. They're only one single percentage point worse than Johnson chart, so its still very accurate.
I just ran a comparison of the Hill vs JJ charts for how much each values different 1st round picks vs the 1st pick in the 3rd round and surprisingly the Hill chart does actually have a slightly larger valuation vs the JJ chart
1st, 16th, and 32nd pick x-times larger than the 1st pick in the 3rd round:
HIll
12.8x larger, 3.9x larger, and 2.4x larger
JJ
11.3x larger, 3.8x, larger, and 2.2x larger
I would love to see a chart that is laid out solely based on money paid to rookies based on the current CBA payscale and compare to the JJ/Hill charts
Thanks Troy! This was an analysis I've been wanting to do ever since I built my Trade Calculator App, and the Sneed trade gave me the perfect excuse to go ahead and do it.
Another interesting thought exercise. Thank you for doing all the legwork on this.
One quibble - towards the end, you mention cutting Sneed and getting the compensatory pick, but comp picks are not for players who are cut. The hypothetical is if the Chiefs had not placed the franchise tag on Sneed and he signed as a free agent since his contract had expired.
Reasonable people can disagree whether the compensation was worth losing the player. Sneed has been awesome for us and on a positive trajectory throughout his time with the team. But that also means his value was probably at its peak. There is depth in the defensive backfield. I don't expect Williams and Watson to be as good as Sneed, but I think they are capable players ready for a larger role. If there is one spot where players consistently overperform their draft status for KC, it is in the defensive backfield. The front office and coaching staff have earned our trust, especially back there.
Ah, thank you for that. I meant if we rescinded the tag and allowed him to reach free agency, not if we cut him, as he had not yet signed the tag. I will clarify that language.
No worries. I wasn't sure if a team could rescind the tag - that seems an especially ugly thing to do. The team forces the player to miss out on the first wave of free agency when teams have cap space to pick them up, then doesn't even have to honor it if it isn't signed. The more I learn about the tag, the more I hate it!
It doesn't happen often, but it has happened. It was discussed by fans regarding Sneed, especially after the low trade compensation came out. With our lack of major contracts given to incoming free agents, we likely would have received a comp pick for him, had we gone that route.
Kudos Joseph!
So we should be using the JJ chart for rounds 1-2 and the Hill chart for 3-7?
I'm surprised the JJ chart came out on top as the Hill chart was specifically formulated based on actual NFL trades post CBA that only involved draft picks. I feel like I have read comments form former NFL executives that said the JJ chart was pretty accurate except for the 1st round overvaluations.
This would be reasonable to do, yes. Though just sticking with either chart would also be fine, imo. I was surprised that the Rich Hill chart didn't win this, too. They're only one single percentage point worse than Johnson chart, so its still very accurate.
I just ran a comparison of the Hill vs JJ charts for how much each values different 1st round picks vs the 1st pick in the 3rd round and surprisingly the Hill chart does actually have a slightly larger valuation vs the JJ chart
1st, 16th, and 32nd pick x-times larger than the 1st pick in the 3rd round:
HIll
12.8x larger, 3.9x larger, and 2.4x larger
JJ
11.3x larger, 3.8x, larger, and 2.2x larger
I would love to see a chart that is laid out solely based on money paid to rookies based on the current CBA payscale and compare to the JJ/Hill charts
Great job here Joseph
Thanks Troy! This was an analysis I've been wanting to do ever since I built my Trade Calculator App, and the Sneed trade gave me the perfect excuse to go ahead and do it.
I love this. I would say Rich Hill probably most accurate, though, as a slight penalty for trading up just makes sense.